Introduction
The article deconstructs traditional understandings of prosperity, moving away from simply equating it with material wealth. It analyzes how various civilizations—from the Roman Empire to modern democracies—defined and achieved well-being, accounting for factors such as stability, security, freedom, and self-actualization. The central thesis posits that prosperity is a dynamic process, with its center constantly migrating between continents. Angus Maddison’s analysis and his contribution to measuring living standards serve as a starting point for reflecting on how historical experiences can help avoid mistakes in the face of contemporary challenges. The article challenges a Eurocentric view of history, highlighting Asia's role as the "world's factory" for most of history.
Angus Maddison: A Pioneer in Quantifying World History
Angus Maddison’s project is an attempt to reconstruct the conditions that enabled modern economic thinking through the quantification of history. Maddison viewed the Roman Empire not as an ark of civilization, but as an efficient machine for the systemic extraction of surplus from the provinces to the center. This system rested on three pillars: the military apparatus, fiscal mechanisms, and slavery. The latter, acting as a production institution, intensified exploitation but became a demographic trap once conquests ceased.
The foundations for this approach were laid by pioneers of political arithmetic, such as William Petty, John Graunt, and Gregory King. They transformed raw power into precise resource management, creating GDP prototypes and population maps. Today, their mission is continued by the Maddison Project, which updates purchasing power parity (PPP) data, allowing us to track how global centers of wealth have shifted since antiquity.
From China’s Isolation to Japan’s Modernization
Asian history reveals diverse developmental paths. The Ming Dynasty, despite its naval power, consciously chose isolationism, deeming maritime expansion too costly for the state budget. Conversely, India under British rule experienced forced deindustrialization; the colonial tax system and the influx of cheap textiles from Lancashire stifled local industry. Meiji-era Japan took a completely different path, implementing a developmental capitalism model where the state initiated key investments, transferring them to private conglomerates (zaibatsu) once they became profitable.
It is also worth noting the Islamic world, which integrated African and Asian markets through extensive trade routes. This was a cosmopolitan network for exchanging goods and ideas, where prosperity meant mobility and participation in a global cultural circulation. These historical trajectories—from predatory extraction to guided modernization—remain a reference point for the development strategies of the Global South today.
The Evolution of Prosperity and the Migration of Centers of Gravity
Economic centers of gravity are constantly migrating—from Mesopotamia, through the Islamic world and China, to the Atlantic. This journey is determined by shifting combinations of energy efficiency, stable institutions, and the ability to attract talent. The definition of prosperity has evolved: for a Roman, it meant urban infrastructure; for Confucian China, bureaucratic status; and for early modern Europe, privacy and merchant capital. Although the elites of the past lived in luxury, modern living standards are statistically the highest in history thanks to medicine, education, and civil rights.
The migration of well-being is linked to the architecture of trust and innovation. Regions that combine new technology with appropriate laws gain an advantage, though every center eventually generates its own "pathologies of success," such as bloated bureaucracy or inequality. Today’s swing of the pendulum back toward Asia is the next stage of this process, where the sense of security and institutional quality are becoming more important than GDP growth alone.
Summary
Prosperity is not a static image in a table, but a constant movement across the map of human desires. Measuring GDP since the time of Rome provides only the skeleton upon which we build our modern understanding of the "good life." In the pursuit of growth, are we forgetting what truly matters in this journey—the meaning that eludes spreadsheets but resonates in the echoes of history?
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