Introduction
History is a laboratory of decision-making errors. Jared Diamond’s model provides insight into why socio-economic systems become unstable. This article analyzes the mechanisms leading to the collapse of civilizations and translates them into the language of modern business. You will learn how cognitive biases and market short-sightedness lead to disasters and how a new ethics of responsibility can prevent them.
The Diamond Model: Five Pillars of Civilization Collapse
Jared Diamond defines five pillars of collapse: environmental degradation, climate change, hostile neighbors, loss of trading partners, and society’s response. This is no coincidence, but a diagnostic matrix for assessing the stability of any system.
Cognitive Biases: The Mechanism of Catastrophic Decisions
Why do societies make decisions that lead to catastrophe? This is driven by four error mechanisms: the failure to anticipate a problem, the failure to perceive it once it arrives, the tragedy of the commons, and conflicts of interest among elites.
Structural Blindness and Climate Change as a Loss Multiplier
Structural blindness makes resources seem inexhaustible, with their depletion masked by natural fluctuations. Climate change acts as a loss multiplier—in stable times, errors go unpunished, but in the face of drought or cooling, they become a death sentence for a civilization that has overexploited its land.
Scandinavia vs. Germany: Two Models of Risk Management
Different cultures respond differently to threats. Scandinavia prioritizes trust and inclusivity, linking the fate of the elites to the rest of society. Germany relies on rules and ordoliberalism but can fall victim to risky dependencies, as evidenced by the energy crisis.
The Tragedy of the Commons and Elite Isolation
The tragedy of the commons destroys rationality: when profit is private and cost is shared, everyone seeks maximum exploitation. The situation is worsened by elite isolation. When decision-makers can insulate themselves from the consequences of their actions, they employ strategic rationality, ignoring long-term risks.
Formal Logic Unmasks the Mechanisms of Collapse
Logical analysis shows that collapse (C) occurs when environmental degradation (P) and a lack of adequate response (non-R) coincide with an additional external stressor. The environment does not determine collapse—faulty collective rationality does.
Climate Economics and the Tragedy of the Horizon
Modern science updates Diamond’s model through the concept of planetary boundaries. A key challenge for financial markets is the tragedy of the horizon: credit cycles and board terms are too short to account for ecological consequences that manifest decades later.
Transformation Scenarios: The Future of Global Business
Business faces a choice of scenarios: from forced adaptation and finance-driven transformation to technological innovation. Internalizing externalities—factoring environmental impact into product pricing—is becoming a prerequisite for corporate stability.
New Managerial Rationality and Leader Restraint
New managerial rationality requires transparency and a redefinition of corporate interest. A leader’s true virtue becomes restraint. This is a new form of courage: a conscious decision to forgo immediate profit for the sake of the long-term viability of the entire economic and living system.
Summary
Are we destined to repeat the mistakes of the past? Diamond’s model teaches us that collapse is not destiny, but the result of specific choices. The key to survival is not just knowledge, but above all, humility toward nature and the courage to sacrifice short-term gains for the sake of the future. The question is: can we afford to become the generation that breaks this fatal cycle and builds a lasting rationality?
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