Poland and the Systemic War: Doctrine and Deterrence

Fundacja Dobre Państwo • January 2, 2026 • 🇵🇱 Polski

Introduction

To actively shape its future, Poland must abandon pathos in favor of solid security foundations. In an era of global systemic warfare – a conflict over the control of capital, energy, and data flows – a state without its own doctrine and strategy becomes merely a territory. This article explains why Poland needs a coherent action plan, how it should be built, and what the key pillars of its security in the 21st century are.

The Geopolitical Chessboard: Poland's Position in Systemic Warfare

Classical geopolitical theories emphasize Poland's strategic location. According to Mackinder, control over Eastern Europe is key to dominating the Heartland. Spykman shifted the focus to the Rimland – the periphery of Eurasia. Brzeziński saw this region as a "chessboard" where the USA must prevent the rise of a hegemon. Today, this game unfolds in the context of US-China rivalry. This is not a war for territory, but for control over global value chains. Poland, integrated into global trade, must find its own position in this game to avoid becoming a victim of others' interests.

Doctrine and Deterrence: Poland's Military Strength

Poland's military doctrine must be based on credible deterrence. It is crucial to possess the capability for conventional strikes on military targets in the Kaliningrad Oblast. Such an option raises the cost of potential aggression. Equally important is "nuclear algebra" – active participation in NATO's nuclear sharing program and dialogue on European deterrence. The goal is a consistent signal at every level of escalation. Army modernization, in turn, must rest on three pillars: genuine Polonization, interoperability without loss of self-direction, and operational autonomy.

Foundations of Power: Economy, Society, and Alliances

The strength of a state is not solely its army. The foundation of economic security is nuclear energy, which will allow Poland to transition from a subcontractor model to an architect of value. Equally important is civil defense, ensuring societal resilience and the continuity of state functions. Implementing these changes requires a new strategic culture from the elites, combining realism with technical proficiency. In relations with allies, Poland must enforce the principle of "equal footing" – mutual responsibility. The entire framework is tied together by a Grand Strategy: a concrete implementation plan, broken down into stages and coordinated at the highest governmental level.

Summary

The implementation of a Grand Strategy is a process where industrial discipline translates into real firepower. The state must learn to communicate about risk quickly and factually, just as weather is reported. Only when strategic thinking descends from the level of documents into daily practice will Poland gain real agency. Strategy then becomes culture, and resilience – the foundation of statehood.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is “systemic warfare” and how should Poland respond to it?

"Systemic warfare" is a cyclical upheaval in the global order, fueled by productivity imbalances between major powers. Poland cannot be a "bumper force," but must actively shape the future, drawing on its own doctrine, strategy, and capable elites.

How important is the Kaliningrad Oblast for Poland's security?

The Kaliningrad Oblast is a technologically saturated A2/AD node capable of striking targets throughout Poland. Poland's ability to locally destroy military infrastructure increases the cost of Russian escalation and strengthens deterrence.

What role does nuclear energy play in Poland's economic security strategy?

Nuclear energy is key to providing cheaper and predictable energy for industry, which is fundamental to building qualitative advantages and transforming Poland from a "cheap assembly plant" into a "highly flexible function node."

What does Poland's "equal footing" with the US and the EU mean in a strategic context?

"Equal footing" means conducting policy from the position of a partner who exercises mutual accountability and actively co-creates policies, rather than a submissive client. The goal is to strengthen one's position on the geopolitical chessboard.

Why does the text emphasize the role of elites and civil defense?

Elites must learn "cold empathy" and "warm technocracy" to effectively combine state instruments and communicate the meaning of sacrifice. Civil defense, in turn, is an existential partner of the military, crucial for the continuity of social flows and social cohesion in the face of 21st-century war.

What are the key dimensions of a positive program for Poland resulting from the analysis?

The program includes: keeping Russia outside the European security system through deterrence, breaking the peripherality through nuclear energy and its own strike systems, maintaining a "parity of pace" with the US/EU, and building civil defense.