Jared Diamond's "Upheaval": The Logic of Crisis and the Self-Knowledge of Nations

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Jared Diamond's "Upheaval": The Logic of Crisis and the Self-Knowledge of Nations

Crisis: The Sudden Unveiling of Social Structure

According to Jared Diamond, a crisis is the sudden unveiling of a society’s true shape. It is the moment when a collective loses the luxury of ignoring the obvious, and existing adaptive strategies cease to function. This article analyzes how nations cope with such shocks by applying the principles of psychotherapy to the state level. You will learn why selective change is the key to survival and how culture and geography determine our ability to respond to threats such as artificial intelligence or armed conflict.

The Psychotherapeutic Model and Cultural Frameworks of Crisis

Diamond proposes a psychotherapeutic model for analyzing national crises, translating twelve factors of effective individual therapy to the national level. A nation’s acknowledgment of a crisis resembles the moment an individual stops rationalizing their breakdown. However, the USA, Europe, and the Arab world present different cultural frameworks for crisis. Fatalistic collectivism (crisis as the will of God) dominates the Arab world; radical individualism and blame-seeking prevail in the USA; while Europe focuses on institutionalization and technocratic reforms.

These differences influence how artificial intelligence optimizes crisis management. Gulf states see AI as a tool for sovereignty and control, the USA treats it as a fuel for productivity (despite the risk of polarization), and the European Union focuses on regulations protecting individual rights. Without adequate institutions, however, this technology may deepen the structural weaknesses that catalyze crises—which Prof. Elżbieta Mączyńska defines as the need to redefine development goals rather than merely "tightening the screws" within the system.

Finland and Japan: Selective Change and Symbolic Fences

Finland serves as a paradigm of effective crisis management. Instead of adopting the role of a victim after the war with the USSR, the Finns transformed their isolation into a realistic political doctrine, balancing necessity with autonomy. A similar path was taken by Meiji Japan, where selective change became a method of modernization. The Japanese rapidly adopted Western technology and administration while simultaneously erecting symbolic fences to protect the core of their identity: the position of the Emperor and the language.

These "fences" allow nations to distinguish inviolable values from those that must change. The lack of such an ability is evident in Indonesia, where a lack of consensus blocks the resolution of the crisis surrounding the trauma of 1965. Without honestly naming the trauma and establishing new boundaries of identity, the state cannot build a stable legal infrastructure. Effective adaptation thus requires a painful self-assessment, which contemporary superpowers often lack.

The German Zeitenwende and the Paradoxes of Global Business

After 1945, Germany underwent a process of accepting historical responsibility, transforming a culture of guilt into a culture of responsibility. However, today’s German Zeitenwende forces another transformation of the economic model and a shift from the image of a "civilian power" toward real military strength. Meanwhile, the USA exhibits barriers to applying the twelve factors of crisis resolution: polarization prevents consensus on threats, and the myth of exceptionalism blocks learning from other nations.

The capacity for change is also influenced by geography and geopolitics. The isolation of the USA grants it the luxury of making risky decisions, while the location of Germany or Finland necessitates strategic caution. In this context, institutional memory serves as an archive of precedents. However, a corporate paradox emerges: tech company boards, prioritizing profit, may move assets out of unstable home countries. In a meta-logical sense, this inevitably deepens the crises of those states, destroying the very environment in which the corporations themselves grew.

Summary

In a world where crisis is becoming the norm, the true challenge is finding a balance between adaptation and the preservation of identity. The examples of Finland and Japan teach us that nations can survive the most severe shocks as long as they can selectively relinquish parts of their sovereignty or tradition to save what is most precious. Will modern societies, caught between technological acceleration and political polarization, manage a brutally honest self-diagnosis before the trajectory of the crisis becomes irreversible?

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Diamond's analogy between therapy and the state?
Jared Diamond brings the twelve factors of effective personal therapy to the national level, suggesting that nations, like individuals, must go through a process of honest self-diagnosis and selective change to survive the crisis.
What are the differences in approaches to AI between the US, Europe and Arab countries?
Arab countries treat AI as a tool for technological sovereignty, the US sees it as a way to increase productivity, while the European Union focuses on legal regulations and the protection of individual rights.
Why is the example of Meiji-era Japan important for modern nations?
Meiji Japan is a prime example of selective modernization, where the state quickly adopted Western institutions without losing its cultural and symbolic core.
What, according to Professor Mączyńska, is the greatest challenge of the era of artificial intelligence?
The biggest threat is not the replacement of humans by machines, but the lack of adequate institutions and social solidarity, which could lead to structural exclusion and new political crises.
How does Germany's response to the crisis differ from Japan's?
Germany developed a culture of blameworthiness (Schuld), making brutally honest self-diagnosis, while Japan tended more towards a narrative of being a victim of fate and tragic bad luck.

Related Questions

Tags: Upheaval Jared Diamond crisis logic national identity selective modernization artificial intelligence technological sovereignty axiological infrastructure Finlandization Meiji era structural crisis national self-diagnosis crisis paradigm coordination of collective actions institutional transformation