Crisis as a Systemic Feature: The End of the Aberration Myth
The modern financial system has ceased to be merely an infrastructure supporting the real economy, becoming instead a factory of regular catastrophes. Crises, such as the one in 2007–2008, are not one-off errors but a systemic feature resulting from the transformation of risk into an illusion of certainty. Financial logic has detached itself from normative goals, promoting excessive debt accumulation and the erosion of institutional barriers.
Securitization and the Greenspan Put: Fueling Market Imbalances
The foundation of instability became securitization, which fundamentally changed the nature of mortgages. The "originate-to-hold" relationship was replaced by an "originate-to-distribute" logic, turning debt into an anonymous raw material for complex CDO instruments. Risk, instead of being dispersed, was hidden within a labyrinth of dependencies.
Glass-Steagall: A Cordon Sanitaire and the Consequences of Its Repeal
The historic Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 established a clear separation between commercial and investment banking. This "fence" protected citizens' deposits from speculation. The dismantling of bank separation in 1999 paved the way for "too big to fail" conglomerates, drastically increasing systemic fragility. This process was bolstered by the so-called Greenspan put—an unwritten guarantee that the central bank would always provide liquidity after a bubble burst, creating an asymmetric incentive for risk-taking.
Shadow Banking and Quantitative Easing (QE)
A key role in creating liquidity was played by shadow banking—a system of institutions operating outside regulations, borrowing "short" to invest "long." When this structure faltered, central banks implemented quantitative easing (QE). While QE prevented deflation, it entrenched moral hazard: the belief that losses would be shifted to the public sector.
Scandinavia vs. Germany: Lessons from Bank Bailouts
Comparing bailout models reveals two distinct paths. The Scandinavian model prioritized transparency and painful losses for private capital. The German model was a drawn-out process that avoided clear accountability, fostering latent instability. Today, investor liability is politically difficult, as a lack of intervention threatens to collapse the real economy.
The Minsky Hypothesis: A Return to Instability Theory
Modern scholarship is rehabilitating Hyman Minsky. His hypothesis proves that the system endogenously generates instability: periods of calm encourage increased leverage until a breaking point is reached (the Minsky moment).
CBDC vs. Commercial Money: A New Liquidity Hierarchy
In the face of disappearing cash, monetary sovereignty is becoming the primary driver for implementing CBDCs (central bank digital currencies). Unlike commercial money (a claim against a bank), a CBDC is a direct, secure liability of the state.
CBDC as a Digital Wall and the Risk of Centralization
A CBDC can function as a digital wall, separating payment functions from credit creation, which technologically recreates the logic of Glass-Steagall. However, CBDC centralization carries risks: the potential for digital bank runs and threats to privacy. Programmable money will allow for precise policy (e.g., green investments) but requires global business to adapt to new political and operational risks.
Summary
Will the digital financial revolution bring stability or merely new forms of control? Will public money, freed from the shackles of commercial banking, become a guarantee of emancipation or a tool for discreet surveillance of our every move? The answer to this question will determine the future of capitalism, suspended between the dream of freedom and the temptation of total control.
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