Introduction
This article analyzes J. Bradford DeLong’s concept of the "long twentieth century," spanning the years 1870–2010. This was an era in which the economy became the forge of human destiny, and humanity for the first time gained the tools to overcome biological constraints. Readers will discover how a triple innovation transformed the world, why material abundance failed to bring social peace, and what today’s crisis of legitimacy in the global order signifies.
1870: The Ontological Breakthrough of Modern Growth
The year 1870 represents an ontological breakthrough because it was then that the growth rate of the "stock of useful knowledge" permanently outpaced demographics. Previously, the world was ruled by the Malthusian devil—a ruthless mechanism where any increase in production was swallowed by population growth, famine, and war. Breaking this barrier was made possible by a triple innovation: globalization (exchange infrastructure), the modern corporation (scaling capital), and the industrial research laboratory (the method of serial invention).
The first phase of this era (until 1914) appears as an economic El Dorado, yet it was an asymmetrical success. While the industrial core grew wealthy, the rest of the world experienced the Great Divergence. A lack of stable institutions and law in the Global South meant that globalization became a tool for extraction rather than development, entrenching a civilizational divide.
Slouching Towards Utopia: The Slow March to Prosperity
DeLong calls this period slouching towards utopia because productive power (the objective order) diverged from the principles of just coexistence (the social order). The century’s intellectual axis is defined by a triad: Hayek (faith in spontaneous market order), Polanyi (a warning against the market destroying social bonds), and Keynes (a technocratic compromise ensuring stability).
The pinnacle of the era was the social democratic compromise (1945–1973), which, through state intervention, built the credibility of the promise of progress and strengthened the middle class. However, the neoliberal turn after 1973—a dogmatic response to stagflation—restored the primacy of the market over society. The result was material inequality and a subjective order dominated by the fear of status degradation, which ultimately undermined trust in institutions.
2010: The Symbolic End of the Long Century
The symbolic year 2010 marks the end of an era where economic growth was a universal solution. Today, technology alone does not guarantee justice; digital innovations often generate profits without creating stable jobs. Modern business operates under conditions of market fragmentation, where geopolitics and supply chain security become more important than pure cost efficiency.
The challenge of the future is a new triple innovation in the sphere of recognition. It is no longer enough to optimize production; we must design credibility-building institutions that reconcile technical progress with the dignity and security of citizens. Without a systemic framework for fair distribution, modernity will remain stuck in a normative chaos where material abundance coexists with a deep sense of injustice.
Summary
The long twentieth century proved that we can overcome scarcity, but it did not teach us how to manage abundance. Institutions build the credibility of the promise of progress, and their current crisis is a signal that old maps no longer fit the new territory. The future depends on whether we can combine technological innovation with social innovation, creating an order where progress is shared by all, not just the few.
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