The Geopolitics of Silicon: Chips as the Foundation of Power and the Economy

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The Geopolitics of Silicon: Chips as the Foundation of Power and the Economy

Introduction

Chips have become to the modern era what coal and steel were to the Industrial Revolution, and oil to the 20th century. They are the foundation of power, dictating the capacity for warfare and economic growth. A semiconductor is no ordinary raw material; it is the condensed knowledge of civilization etched in silicon. This article explores how the global network of connections between giants like TSMC and ASML is creating a new arena of conflict over technological sovereignty.

Chips: The New Oil and the Foundation of the Economy

Semiconductors are compared to oil because they represent a critical resource for the continuity of daily life. Their military lineage dates back to the ENIAC computer and NASA projects—this technology was born from the need for the precise application of force and missile navigation. Today, the AI revolution is driving a new gold rush; Nvidia processors, operating with trillions of transistors, are becoming essential for training language models and autonomous systems.

Weaponized Interdependence: Trade as a Political Weapon

In the era of weaponized interdependence, key technological nodes become instruments of power. Export controls serve as a tool to slow down rivals, as seen in the dispute over 5G and Huawei. However, the silicon transformation carries risks of surveillance and digital exclusion, turning chips into tools of power projection that can colonize the lived experience of individuals.

TSMC: The Global Silicon Production Chokepoint

Taiwan's TSMC acts as a technological chokepoint, producing more than a third of the world's new computing power. Thanks to the foundry model, the company does not design its own chips but offers production capacity to all players, allowing Silicon Valley to focus on innovation. However, concentrating production in a single jurisdiction creates risks: a crisis surrounding Taiwan could trigger a recession deeper than past financial crises.

The ASML Monopoly and EDA Software

The foundation of this power is ASML's monopoly on EUV machines. These devices, costing up to $400 million, use plasma hotter than the surface of the sun to print structures smaller than viruses. Equally vital is American EDA software for chip design. Without access to these tools, technological sovereignty is an illusion, forcing a bifurcation of the global market into separate Western and Chinese ecosystems.

2nm Fabs: Billion-Dollar Entry Costs for the Elite

The semiconductor industry represents the most expensive infrastructure in history. The cost of building a 2nm process fab reaches $28 billion. Such massive barriers to entry have caused the DRAM memory market to consolidate into the hands of just three players (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron), turning it into a battlefield for market and technological dominance.

The CHIPS Act and Supply Resilience Strategies

States are responding with a renaissance of industrial policy. The American CHIPS Act offers $52 billion in subsidies, nationalizing capital risk. Germany, following the pandemic shock, seeks to relocate production to protect its automotive industry. Meanwhile, Scandinavia focuses on high trust governance and investment portfolio diversification. However, the main barrier to sovereignty remains the talent shortage and the extreme complexity of the supply chain, which cannot be easily replicated.

Summary

Chips have become the sacrament of modern power—the material carrier of capital structures and political coercion. Control over them determines which future scenarios are deemed possible. In a world where digital logic profoundly influences our lives, semiconductors are a mirror reflecting our collective future. Will we manage to harness this silicon power to serve justice, or will we become hostages of our own creation? This question remains suspended like a tin droplet in an EUV machine, upon which the fate of the global economy depends.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why are chips compared to crude oil?
Chips, like oil in the 20th century, are a fundamental resource for economic growth, the continuity of daily life, and modern warfare capabilities.
What role does ASML play in the global technological system?
ASML is the world's only manufacturer of EUV lithography machines, which makes the company a monopoly and a critical hub for the production of state-of-the-art processors.
How do German and Scandinavian approaches to the semiconductor crisis differ?
Germany is seeking to relocate production to Europe to protect its industry, while Scandinavia is focusing on diversifying its investment portfolio and treating technology as a global common good.
Was the free market the main driver of transistor development?
No, historically, the semiconductor revolution was driven by military procurement and space projects, where precision strategic calculations were more important than consumer demand.
What does the term weaponized interdependence mean in the context of chips?
This means using dominance over key technologies (e.g. ASML machines) to block the development of rivals and enforce specific political behavior without the use of military force.

Related Questions

Tags: geopolitics of silicon TSMC ASML EUV lithography weaponized interdependence foundry model integrated circuits computing power supply chain technological sovereignty entrepreneurial state transistors military security data economy innovations