Introduction: The Anthropocene Demands a New Ethics of Responsibility
When the MIT team published "The Limits to Growth" in 1972, the global narrative of perpetual progress suffered a rift. In the era of the Anthropocene, where humanity has become a geological force, this diagnosis has taken on existential weight. This article analyzes why modeling the future as a network of interdependencies, rather than a linear path of growth, is key to survival today. You will learn how system dynamics tests our chances of avoiding collapse and why we must redefine the concept of prosperity.
System Dynamics and the World3 Model: Five Variables Determining Collapse
The methodology of system dynamics, developed by Jay W. Forrester, posits that the world's fate is determined by feedback loops and time delays. The World3 model was based on five variables: population, food production, industrialization, non-renewable resources, and environmental pollution. The authors demonstrated that a system stretched beyond its limits does not merely slow down, but collapses abruptly.
The reaction to these findings was fierce—triggering ideological and political resistance from elites. Attempts were made to discredit the "heresy" of zero growth, employing a kind of "capitalism’s immune reflex." Nevertheless, the model served a heuristic function, exposing the mechanisms driving the