The New Cold Wars: The Twilight of Illusions and China's Power Game

Fundacja Dobre Państwo • January 14, 2026 • 🇵🇱 Polski

The Unipolar Era: The Failures of Liberal Universalism

After a period of illusions regarding automatic liberalization and peace—supposedly the natural outcomes of integrating China and Russia into the global economy—reality has delivered a brutal wake-up call. The architecture of the unipolar era was built on a logical fallacy: the belief that integration (r) inevitably leads to liberalization (p) and peace (q). China became part of the global system, but instead of democratizing, it consolidated its authoritarian rule. Today’s new cold wars represent a painful correction for Western elites, exposing the naivety of corporate strategies built on the market's presumed pacifying power.

Xi Jinping: The Primacy of Ideology Over Economic Growth

Under Xi Jinping, a radical shift has occurred: national security and the party’s grip on power now take precedence over GDP growth rates. China used its 2001 WTO accession instrumentally—as a means to acquire technology and capital without adopting liberal values. Today, semiconductors are at the heart of the conflict, serving as the "new oil." Aware of its critical dependence on the Taiwanese giant TSMC, the U.S. is implementing a "small yard, high fence" strategy. This approach involves rigorously cutting Beijing off from key innovations while maintaining limited trade in other areas.

Belt and Road: The New Architecture of Chinese Dominance

Chinese expansion follows the logic of the game of Go—patiently encircling territory and building networks of infrastructural dependency. This stands in contrast to the Western "chess-like" drive for direct confrontation. Beijing draws from the traditions of Sun Tzu, seeking victory without battle and using deception as a strategic tool. These actions are fueled by a desire for retribution for the "century of humiliation." Even if demographics suggest a Peak China phenomenon, Xi’s superpower ambitions are not fading; instead, they are evolving toward technological autarky and the creation of an alternative economic bloc.

Technological Bifurcation Forces Operational Dualism for Firms

Global business must adapt to a permanent bifurcation of technological systems. Two distinct ecosystems of standards are emerging, forcing companies into a costly operational dualism. While full decoupling is an economic pipe dream, derisking—the selective reduction of exposure—has become the dominant strategy. Meanwhile, cyberspace has turned into a theater of war. Beijing uses data for total social control and the preemptive sabotage of critical Western infrastructure. Businesses are losing the luxury of market neutrality, becoming de facto actors in quasi-foreign policy.

The New Order: Mechanisms for Stabilizing Global Conflict

Stabilizing the new order requires building resilience mechanisms. It is essential to include China in a dialogue on trilateral nuclear balance, as the classic U.S.-Russia duopoly no longer exists. We need a "digital Geneva Convention" and the formation of technological clubs among nations sharing common values. In the labyrinth of new cold wars, the West must navigate a game with changed rules. Will we sacrifice our defining values in the pursuit of security? Flexibility and adaptation will be our most powerful weapons in this unpredictable world.

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Summary

This article provides a profound analysis of contemporary geopolitical rivalry, defined as the 'new Cold War.' The author dismantles the intellectual architecture of the unipolar era, exposing the West's flawed assumptions about automatic democratization through economic integration. The text details the evolution of China's strategy under Xi Jinping, which has shifted from cautious capacity building to openly challenging American hegemony. A key element of this power game is the fusion of civilian and military sectors, as well as dominance in general-purpose technologies, with a particular focus on semiconductors and TSMC. The analysis also encompasses infrastructure tools of influence such as the Belt and Road Initiative and debt-trap diplomacy. The whole picture is completed by a new security architecture in which hypersonic weapons and the trilateral nuclear treaty define the limits of deterrence, definitively ending the era of Western illusions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did the assumptions of the unipolar era turn out to be wrong?

They were based on the naive belief that economic integration would automatically force the liberalization of China and Russia, which the empirical evidence of the last decade has verified as a logical fallacy.

How does Xi Jinping's strategy differ from that of his predecessors?

Xi has abandoned the doctrine of concealing power in favor of open power building, prioritizing national security and technological self-sufficiency over GDP growth.

What role do semiconductors play in the new conflict?

Semiconductors are considered the strategic equivalent of oil, forming the nervous system of the modern economy and weapons systems, making them a major field of competition.

What are the risks associated with the Belt and Road Initiative?

The project allows China to build an alternative network of dependencies in which debt and control over key transport infrastructure become the instrument of domination.

What does a three-way game mean in the context of nuclear armaments?

This transition from a stable US-Russia relationship to a three-power rivalry complicates deterrence theories and increases the risk of strategic error.