The Riyadh-Tehran Axis: Religion, Oil, and the Global Game

Introduction

The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is not merely about politics and oil. It is a profound struggle for cultural and religious dominance, in which both states employ "soft power" to build influence. This article analyzes the conflict on multiple levels: from ideology and media, through the role of global powers, to escalation mechanisms. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for assessing global energy security and stability in the Middle East.

Rivalry: Culture and Religion as a Conflict Front

The Saudi-Iranian conflict unfolds in the realm of symbols and narratives. Saudi Arabia exports Wahhabism, an ultraconservative branch of Sunni Islam, funding mosques and religious centers worldwide. Iran responds by exporting its Islamic revolution, based on the Shiite doctrine of wilayat al-faqih, or the guardianship of the supreme cleric. Religion here becomes the "political software" legitimizing power.

The war is also waged in the media, where channels like Saudi Al-Arabiya and Iranian Press TV present divergent visions of reality. Even women's rights are instrumentalized: Riyadh presents reforms as proof of modernization (so-called state feminism), while in Iran, women's resistance becomes a global symbol of defiance. However, internal reformers operate in both countries, challenging the state's monopoly on religious interpretation.

USA Shapes the Dynamics of the Gulf Conflict

Global powers play a crucial role in moderating the conflict. The United States, in line with the Carter Doctrine, has for decades remained the guarantor of navigation security in the Persian Gulf, balancing deterrence with diplomacy (e.g., the JCPOA nuclear deal). New players are entering this vacuum. China, as the largest oil consumer, is becoming a pragmatic mediator, aiming to stabilize supplies. Russia exploits the conflict to strengthen its influence in Syria and within OPEC+, co-determining global commodity prices. Understanding this game requires tools from various theories of international relations: from realism to constructivism.

Escalation and De-escalation: Conflict Mechanisms

Conflict mechanisms operate on three levels. Escalation occurs when doctrine (religious justification), geoeconomics (attacks on infrastructure), and social consent synchronize. De-escalation emerges when economic costs rise or social resistance increases. Based on this, three scenarios can be distinguished: cold détente (controlled rivalry), managed confrontation (cyclical incidents), or the threshold of nuclear uncertainty (risk of open war). For Poland and the EU, this conflict poses a direct threat to energy security, necessitating supply diversification and strategic reserve management.

Conclusion

The Riyadh–Tehran axis is a sophisticated blend of political theology and petro-capitalism. Instead of seeking simple solutions, one must focus on understanding the rules of this game. Piety does not invalidate the tanker's bill, and modernization without freedom is merely rebranding. Whether the "black wave" of conflict recedes depends not on declarations, but on whether it runs out of fuel to flow.

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